Vorys on Labor : Labor Relations Lawyer & Attorney: Vorys, Sater, Seymour and Pease Law Firm: National Labor Relations

Ohio voters defeated Issue 2 yesterday by a vote of 61% to 39%.  If passed, Issue 2 would have permitted Senate Bill 5 to take effect.  According to one report, the ballot question saw the union "vote no" campaign spend heavily to achieve victory, to the tune of $24 million.

While the political fallout of the result will be debated for some time, and has already begun, the implications for the labor professional are considerably more clear.  The failure of Issue 2 means that current law continues in effect, including the dispute resolution mechanisms like fact-finding and binding conciliation for safety-related employees.  The only thing to monitor now is whether proponents of Senate Bill 5 will attempt to pass the pieces of it that received favorable polling response, such as the requirement to pay at least 15% of the cost of health insurance coverage, merit pay, and pension "pickups."

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Opponents of Issue 2 -- the ballot question regarding the public sector collective bargaining reform bill in Ohio -- got an apparent boost from some recently released polling data.  According to the latest Quinnipiac University poll released on October 25, support for the reform law has declined.  The poll showed that 57% of Ohioans support the repeal of Senate Bill 5 while only 32% oppose repeal. The gap of 25% is an increase over the poll results conducted about a month ago.

Nevertheless, an interesting counter-point appeared later in the week, on the heels of the poll results. In a post on The Washington Post blog, Greg Sargent reports on an internal labor memorandum analyzing the poll results.  Among other things, Mr. Sargent quotes the memorandum as questioning whether a poll can accurately predict voter turnout for a ballot initiative and observing that polling on other ballot initiatives in the past has been inaccurate.

For the labor professional, the uncertainty about the law in Ohio will be resolved soon enough.  The general election is on November 8.

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Among other ballot initiatives Ohio voters will have a chance to pass on this November is Issue 2.  It asks whether the law reforming Ohio's public sector collective bargaining law, Senate Bill 5, should be rejected.

Polls on Issue 2 have not been favorable for those who want to keep Senate Bill 5.  The gap is, however, decreasing according to the latest poll conducted by Quinnipiac University in Connecticut.  In the last poll conducted in July, voters favored repeal of the law 56% -  32%.  The more recent numbers show repeal is still favored, but by a margin of 51% - 38%.

As readers of this blog know, the law contains a number of different elements, including limits on health care costs, merit-based pay, prohibition on strikes by public employees, and an elimination of "fair share" fees.  The poll appears to have tested some of these parts of the proposal, finding majority support for health care cost containment measures and merit-based pay, but no majority support for prohibiting strikes.  The fair share fee question does not appear to have been polled.

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